Gartner has released their latest “Hype Cycle” report where they tackle all of the hyped technologies and try to determine where they fit into the classic cycle of new/overhyped/crash/commonplace (the few that make it the entire way through, that is).
“The Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies features technologies that are the focus of attention in the IT industry because of particularly high levels of hype, or those that may not be broadly acknowledged but which we believe have the potential for significant impact,” said Jackie Fenn, vice president and Gartner Fellow.
Some relevant technologies to check on the chart:
- Augmented Reality – Just about to hit the peak before the crash, with mainstream adoption in 5-10 years.
- Virtual Assistants & Public Virtual Worlds – nearly through the Trought of Disillusionment, about to enter mainstream in 5-10 years
- Interactive TV – Well on the way to productivity, less than 5 years to mainstream.
Some of this is obvious. With AppleTV, GoogleTV, Hulu, Roku, and so many other players in the market, some would say InteractiveTV is already here.
Of particular interest to me is their information on Augmented Reality and Virtual Worlds. No doubt, Augmented Reality is not much more than hype right now. There are few “useful” applications, at least applications that do anything better than traditional methods. I agree that it’s headed for a big crash. The only thing I disagree with is setting mainstream 5-10 years out. If smartphone and mobile handsets continue to grow at the alarming rate they are right now, I think we’re looking at something as close as 3 years.
Virtual worlds are another interesting point. Yes, they’re definitely in the trough of disillusionment. Second Life is a great example, it was HUGE in the beginning, but users quickly found it confusing and left. Linden has worked hard on improving the experience, and the pioneer users have found fun and interesting uses for the technology, ranging from Game Shows to Scientific Research. I think it’s definitely entering the realm of productivity as people become more accustomed to virtual telecommuting technology like GotoMyPC and WebEx meetings, virtual worlds are just the next step. While SecondLife may not be the final result, it’s an important step along the way as computing power becoming more vast and overwhelming, and a Virtual World interface becomes a simpler way to interact with it.
What do you think?
via Gartner’s 2010 Hype Cycle Special Report Evaluates Maturity of 1,800 Technologies.
It’s definitely worth looking to the VR Hype Cycle as instructional for AR. VR/VW failed to establish it’s core value anywhere beyond gaming, getting too caught up in the belief that “you can do everything in 3D” while failing to establish any common standards or interoperability (not to mention completely missing the boat on federated social affordances). AR will need to do its own soul searching to see where the tech really adds value to experiences.
FWIW, my own thoughts on AR, VR and the 2010 Hype Cycle:
http://www.urbeingrecorded.com/news/2010/10/13/is-ar-ready-for-the-trough-of-disillusionment/
Excellent presentation and analysis of where we are.
Yes Mobile will probably be larger and faster than is expected.
Internet/Interactive TV is also due to spawn a few new instances of
Live Online Virtual Entertainment too.
@ Corey Hart It is now, certainly, but originally it was the same right? Over time it has evolved into it’s own independent system.
Like I said, SecondLife may not be the end-result of the Virtual Worlds movement, but it has spawned many of the beginnings.
Categorizing ScienceSim as a use-case of Second Life is debatable. The viewer and experience is largely the same, but the underlying tech, OpenSim, is a good bit different, and deserves its own mention.