Democratic Senate hopeful Andrew Romanoff has closed a double-digit deficit and pulled even with incumbent Michael Bennet in Colorado’s Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, according to a new Denver Post/9News poll.
In the Republican primary, Ken Buck leads Jane Norton by 9 points, down from a 16-point lead in June.
Romanoff and Bennet are about even — 48 percent to 45 percent, respectively — in the poll of 536 Democrats who have voted or are likely to vote in the Aug. 10 primary. The question has a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points.
The results show a surge for the former state House speaker since June, when he was 17 points behind, and are likely a reflection of a well-organized and passionate ground game, analysts say. Romanoff recently sold his house and cashed in savings to loan his campaign $325,000.
Romanoff’s movement is “dramatic,” according to pollster Jay Leve of Survey USA, the firm that conducted the poll.
Leve said Romanoff is finding support from voters in the Denver area; among voters younger than 50; and among people who call themselves “liberal.”
“He’s finally getting his campaign together. He’s pulling together the Romanoff coalition,” said University of Colorado at Boulder political scientist Ken Bickers. “It’s surprising to me that it’s taken so long.”
That the well-funded Bennet finds himself in a close contest means his campaign — with more than $2.6 million cash on hand — will likely kick into high gear in this last week of Colorado’s nearly all-mail primary election. Eight percent of Democratic voters say they are undecided in that race. Votes will be counted Aug. 10.
Bennet “scrambling”
“The fact that Bennet has Barack Obama ads on everyone’s television screens multiple times a day right now shows that he’s scrambling to win this primary,” said Eric Sondermann, a Denver political consultant. “That is not an ad you’d run in the general election.”
Billie Young, 82, of Pueblo is voting for Romanoff because she didn’t receive a response from Bennet’s local office when she called for help.
“If he can’t take care of his locals, why would we want to vote for him to take care of the whole state?” Young said.
On the Republican side, former Lt. Gov. Norton has scored some points on Buck since a June Denver Post/9News poll showed her trailing him by double digits. In the most recent survey of 588 likely and actual GOP voters, Buck leads Norton 50 percent to 41 percen, with a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.
That could be because Norton has run a slew of negative ads against the Weld County district attorney, some of which point out high-profile Buck gaffes — including one in which he tells voters they should vote for him because he doesn’t “wear high heels.”
It worked for Patricia Hafford.
The 63-year-old from Fort Collins was undecided until she saw the commercial featuring Buck’s comments at an Independence Institute gathering.
“I liked Ken Buck, then I heard that ad, and I thought, ‘how stupid,’ ” said Hafford, who was among the voters polled. “Now I’m for Jane Norton.”
But at 41 percent, Norton is still at a significant disadvantage to Buck, who has enjoyed more than $1.5 million in television, radio and mail advertising paid for by outside groups that don’t have to disclose donors. Many of the recent ads attack Norton.
Looking at Nov. 2
Hypothetical matchups for the Nov. 2 general election show Bennet could have more statewide appeal than Romanoff, with the former Denver Public Schools superintendent about even with Norton at 46 percent to 43 percent, respectively, and tied with Buck at 43 percent each.
Romanoff polls slightly behind Norton, 45 percent to 40 percent, and is tied at 44 percent with Buck, the poll found. Those questions were asked of about 1,000 likely voters and had margins of error of 3.1 or 3.2 percentage points.
Colorado’s Senate primaries have turned increasingly negative in recent weeks on both sides, with Romanoff tarring Bennet as a pawn to special interests because of his campaign contributions, Bennet challenging Romanoff’s history of taking PAC money, Norton calling out Buck’s ethics and integrity, and Buck hitting her for budget claims and supporting Referendum C in 2005.
The negative ads haven’t turned off Jane Stauduhar, a 62-year-old Democrat in Colorado Springs who is voting for Bennet.
“I like Romanoff, but I don’t want to change horses midstream,” she said. “I chose Bennet because he knows what he’s doing.”
Bickers said going negative is usually the sign of an underdog pulling out punches — or of an extremely tight race.
“The negative campaigning on the Democratic side is about who is more likely representing special interests,” he said. “And on the Republican, they’re largely personal, with Norton attacking Buck’s manhood.”
Allison Sherry: 303-954-1377 or asherry@denverpost.com
Election questions
Still looking at your mail-in ballot, wondering whether to vote for Scott McInnis or Dan Maes?
Maybe you have a question for the Republican candidates for governor? If so, here’s your chance to have them answered.
The Denver Post and 9News are teaming up to let voters ask questions of the candidates in a debate that will be covered in Tuesday’s Post, broadcast live online and then replayed on next Sunday’s “Your Show” with Adam Schrager.
To submit your question, put GOVERNOR QUESTIONS in the subject line of an e-mail, include your name and hometown in the body, and send it to newsroom@denverpost.com.
The debate will be livecast on 9News.com at 2 p.m. Monday.
Need help with your primary ballot? Check out The Denver Post 2010 primary election voter guide.
This online guide lets you see and compare the biographies and views of the people in contested races for the U.S. Senate and House, governor, state treasurer and the state legislature.
To check it out, simply direct your browser to denverpost.com/voterguide.
