India can achieve zero transmission of polio in 2 yrs: Gates

NEW DELHI: India could see zero transmission of the crippling polio virus in the next two years, according to business magnate turned philanthropist Bill Gates.
Eradication of polio globally could save the world up to $50 billion over the next 25 years, he said.
Calling India's achievement in reducing cases of polio in 2010 as "good progress", Gates, who spoke to TOI over telephone from US, said that "the combination of the new bivalent vaccine and a committed polio campaign saw a dramatic reduction in cases, giving hope that we are very close to stopping the virus' transmission."
He said, "After reducing transmission to zero, we will have to monitor for two years.Some children will require more than three doses of the vaccine." Last year, both India and Nigeria, the two hotbeds of the virus, had substantially fewer cases than ever before. In India, the number of cases went down from 741 in 2009 to just 41 in 2010 -- a 94% decline.
The number of affected districts too has seen a sharp fall from 90 in 2008, 56 in 2009 and just 17 in 2010.
However, what really worries the Microsoft co-founder is importation of the virus. "Importation is a huge worry. The majority of cases in 2010 were in countries that had been polio-free until the virus travelled back across borders and caused outbreaks like in Tajikistan and Congo," he said.
Gates added, "In 1988, polio existed in 125 countries and paralysed an estimated 3.5 lakh children. In 2010, sustained transmission of polio was recorded in only four countries but outbreaks in 16 countries are reminders that polio anywhere is a threat everywhere."
In his annual 24-page letter, Gates whose foundation announced a new financial commitment of $102 million toward the goal of worldwide eradication of polio, says the campaign still faces a 2011-12 funding gap of $720 million. "If eradication fails because of a lack of generosity on the part of donor countries it would be tragic. We are so close. We need to bring the cases down to zero, maintain careful surveillance to ensure the virus is truly gone, and keep defenses up with polio vaccines until we've confirmed success."
According to Gates, in 20 years, polio cases have been reduced by 99% and the disease is now close to being only the second in history since smallpox to be wiped out.
"In 2010, India and Nigeria cut cases by 95% each. However, until eradicated, polio remains a threat to humanity everywhere," Gates said.
India launched Bivalent Oral Polio Vaccine in January 2010 in place of a monovalent one -- which protects against a single strain. A recent scientific analysis of the BOPV found that it induced a significantly higher immune response -- 30% more than other trivalent or monovalent vaccines.
World Health Organisation's Dr Bruce Aylward said, "There's been the largest ever year-to-year drop in polio cases following the use of BOPV."