1. Aquaculture in a changing climate
Edward H Allison
University of East Anglia, UK
and
WorldFish Center
Penang, Malaysia
Aquculture Triennial
Nashville, Tennessee, USA
Photo: Mehadi, WorldFish - Bangladesh 22nd February 2013
4. Percent of US citizens who believe global
warming has already begun
McCright & Dunlap (2011) The Sociological Quarterly 52
Democrat Independent Republican
5. Global
financial
crisis
Gallup poll trends on % of US public support for questions about global warming
6. Overview
• What are the predictions for future climate?
• Evidence of recent climate change?
• How is the aquaculture sector impacted?
• How can aquaculture adapt?
• Does aquaculture have a role in climate
change mitigation?
• What research is needed?
9. Sea level rise faster than originally predicted by IPCC
Rahmsdorf et al., (2012) Env. Res. Lett.
Measured
Satellite
IPCC
predictions
Gauge
10. Extreme events:
Globally, hurricanes are getting stronger but not more
frequent – but regional patterns differ. Same for
droughts and floods
Maue (2011) Geophys. Res. Lett. (data updated 31/12/12)
11. Are anthropogenic GHG climte
Is current chnge
emissions the main cause
of recent climate change?
An 800,000 yr time series of CO2
concentrations from Antarctic ice
cores (NOAA, 2009)
14. Pickering et al (2011)
Vulnerability of
aquaculture in the
tropical Pacific to climate
change, In Bell et al. SPC.
15. Climate change and mollusc aquaculture (Allison et al., 2011)
Human
Activity Other drivers of change: population, growth, trade
Other CO2 > CO2 in Ocean
GHGs emissions oceans acidification
< calcification
Atmospheric warming in shellfish
and changing weather Reduced oxygenation Increased costs
patterns Changes in PP and < growth and of production
food webs production Changes in
Changes in natural > mortality production
Rising SST spat-fall ≠ recruitment volume and
Increased disease value
Shift sites of
Changing Ocean outbreaks production; adaptation in
Currents Spread of pests and grow different system
alien species species management,
transportation
Sea level rise and marketing
Increased losses
Coastal flooding
and direct damage
More extreme Extreme rainfall
to aquaculture
weather High winds and
infrastructure
events waves
16. Seawater warming and its implications for aquaculture:
increased risks from disease?
e.g. PSP agent Alexandrium catenella in Puget Sound (Moore et al., 2008)
17. Not all climate change impacts are negative
Higher temperatures associated with enhanced recruitment to scallop
fisheries in the North Irish Sea (Shepherd et al., 2010)
18. Can current and anticipated demands for fish
and seafood be met in a changing climate?
• World population to increase to 9.3 Billion by 2050
• Fish provides protein, minerals and vitamins
(17kg/cap/yr)
• Marine capture fisheries close to maximum capacity
• Aquaculture growing faster than population in the
last 30 years, specially in Asia
21. Conclusions of the study
• CC and marine fisheries ~ Food fish production +6.5%, Fishmeal +3%
by 2050
• Aquaculture: Likely to produce enough fish to maintain and increase
current consumption if recent trends in feed technology continue. FIFO
would need to reduce to 50% of current.
• Capture fisheries: management efficiency also required to secure fish
for direct consumption and for feed (likely).
• Aquaculture impacts could be transferred from fisheries to terrestrial
commodities (e.g soya).
Merino et al (2012) Can aquaculture meet global seafood demand in changing
climate? Global Environmental Change 22
22. Adapting aquaculture systems to change:
a farm level view
Exposure + Sensitivity = Potential Impacts ( IPCC, 2001)
Potential Impacts + Adaptive Capacity = Vulnerability
23. Adaptation and mitigation decisions under uncertainty
e.g. Shrimp or rice in low-lying coastal Asia?
Photos: Mike Lusmore, WorldFish
Daw et al (2008) for FAO
24. A value-chain perspective on CC adaptation in aquaculture
Low carbon certification Weather linked insurance
INSTITUTIONAL
Emissions accounting Regional agreements
ADAPTATION Tariffs, taxes, subsidies Community adaptation funds
Energy efficient Energy saving technologies
TECHNICAL Sustainable seafood Early Warning Systems
transport & storage
ADAPTATION information Flood defenses
Processing methods
Farmed species choices
VALUE
CHAIN
Production value
IMPACT ON: Fishing/AQ operations
Coastal infrastructure
CLIMATE CHANGE DRIVERS
25. Aquaculture’s contributions to global
Capture fisheries, warming and it’s potential for mitigation
agricultural Hatchery / Wild
products and stocking
wastes Fertilizers,
chemicals
Feed
production
Aquaculture
Processing
Direct energy Production Phase
(light, heat,
pumps etc)
Distribution
Life cycle analysis Consumption
Global warming Waste Disposal
potential
26. Example: Salmon v. Tilapia
Salmon Tilapia (lake-based)
Global Warming potential:
1520 kg CO2e / t
Contributing factors:
Global Warming potential: 2160 feed (92 %)
kg CO2e / t farm level energy use
Contributing factors: feed (3 %)
(94 %) farm fingerlings (5 %)
level energy use (3 %) smolts
(3 %) Pelletier &
Tyedmers 2010
Pelletier et al. 2009
27. Aquaculture compared with wild fish and other foods
From Hall et al., (2011) Blue Frontiers. WorldFish Center
27
28. Emission Reduction Opportunities – Farm Level
Reduction of energy and fuel use
Renewable energy use and
generation
Feed substitution
Adoption of best management
practises:
Efficient conversion of feed to
animal biomass
Improved soil, water and waste
management
29. Mitigation at the landscape level
• Integrated aquaculture-agriculture systems: use of aquaculture
wastes (i.e. sludge) to form carbon stocks in agricultural soils
• Mangrove-friendly aquaculture (carbon sequestration rate of
mangroves: 139 gC m-2 yr-1) => organic shrimp farming?
Synergy with adaptation measures:
Landscape-based mitigation can also
reduce climate change vulnerability
and promote adaptation (e.g. coastal
protection)
30. Coastal wetlands and seagrass beds sequester more
carbon per unit area than land based systems
Mangroves 139
31. Climate change research at
Sessions:
Climate change and shellfish diseases
Acidification and shellfish aquaculture
Individual talks and posters:
Climate change and bio-invasions
Integrated multi-trophic aquaculture
Climate vulnerability and adaptation (Florida,
West Africa)
Mangroves and carbon markets
Related fundamental research:
Hypoxia, thermal tolerance, salinity change,
feeds
32. Climate change and aquaculture research needs
• Identifying vulnerable people, places and farming
systems
• Breeding and species selection for future climates
• Cost-benefit analysis of adaptation options
• Low-carbon farming systems
• Climate-proofing value chains
33. Key messages
Impacts
• complex, uncertain but already becoming evident
• some winners some losers (equity and ethics considerations)
Adaptation
• addresses both threats and opportunities
• mostly ‘no regrets’
• many businesses already adapting but little planned adaptation
Mitigation
• aquaculture can help lower carbon footprint of the human diet
• build ‘blue carbon’ stocks through landscape management
34. Thanks
! Malcolm Beveridge Anne Delaporte,
Mike Phillips Denis Hellebrandt,
Suan Pheng Kam Neil Adger
Marie-Caroline Badjeck
Steve Hall
Cassandra de Young Manuel Barange
Doris Soto Gorka Merino
John Cooksey
Nick Dulvy
Jay Parsons
Sandy Shumway
Editor's Notes
When I started working on the impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture, in 2005, there was already a lot of academic research on climate variability, marine and aquatic ecology and fish production, but that research had little traction in the world of policy and management and was entirely unconnected with the world of climate adaptation and mitigation, of the IPCC and the climate conferences. There was no climate change policy, position statement or agenda from any national or international organization working with the sector, and none of the major climate change policies had given consideration to the sector – or even to the oceans. It took 15 years before the words ocean and fish were mentioned in UNFCCC conferences. So, as well as doing some research on vulnerablity and adaptation options, With my colleagues, we have worked hard over the last 7 years to bring climate change policy issues – impact, adaptation and mitigation – into the policy arena. Some of the steps we’ve taken and the initiatives I’ve led or been involved in include FAO’s first publication on climate change, fisheries and aquaculture Started a climate change research programme at the WorldFish Center Brought fish to COP15 – Copenhagen and hit on the idea of oceans day – like forest day and agriculture day… Helped to found the Partnership on Climate Fisheries and Aquaculture
Arrive here at a time when you’ve just had the largest climate-change related political demonstration in the US
NE US and Canada will get wetter, southern part of he country, central America and chile and much of Brazil will get dryer, as will the mediterranean, Sahel, India and Australia. SE Asia and the western Pacific will get more rain, as will scotland ,scandinavia and the soviet union
IPCC not over-pessimistic in its assessments…
The insurance company Munich Re, however, found an increase in extreme weather events (and not just cost of insurance and value of payouts)
Simple pathway…
More complicated….
In a 4 degree warmer world, you’d only be safe for six months of the year, instead of the 9.5 now.
Winners, losers and sustainability
Main point: ‘No regrets”
! Energy use/ GHG emissions due to aquaculture can vary strongly between species, systems and regions In general LCA studies indicate that the farming stage is the most important one concerning energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, however, more studies involving the whole value chain are necessary Within the aquaculture production stage feed is most commonly the most important source of greenhouse gas emissions in aquaculture (in case the system depends on feed). On farm electricity and fuel use has a substantial impact in case of a high degree of mechanization (e.g. aeration, water exchange systems). In certain extensive systems fertilizers contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and energy use as well.
Results for GWP given in kg CO 2 e for the production of one live-weight tonne of fish I chose these two systems because they are from the same authors and the methodology is similar. Both analysis went up to the farm-gate (Tilapia study went beyond, but also gave results for up to farm-gate) Salmon: Pelletier et al. 2009 ( Not All Salmon Are Created Equal: Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) of Global Salmon Farming Systems) Tilapia: Pelletier & Tyedmers 2010 (Life Cycle Assessment of Frozen Tilapia Fillets From Indonesian Lake-Based and Pond-Based Intensive Aquaculture Systems)
Make sure the comparisons are from methodologically similar or robust studies (eg Pelletier). Good to see some more comparisons with global fisheries. Is the source correct?
Reduction of energy and fuel use: R educed machinery use and use of energy efficient machinery; Energy efficient lighting; Use of low carbon and/or recycled building materials; Local sourcing of inputs; Improved command and control processes; Reduction in inorganic fertilizer and other chemical inputs Renewable energy use and generation On site generation of power and/or heat from renewable sources ( solar, wind, geothermal, water, tide, wave, and biomass ); Use of biomass crops; Sourcing of renewable energy supplies ( electricity from renewable sources; run vehicles, boats, machinery and generators on biofuels ) Adoption of best management practises Efficient conversion of feed to animal biomass: enhanced through good site selection, adopting optimal feeding strategies (e.g. concerning feed presentation, feeding rate and frequency), ensuring good husbandry, selective breeding programs, switch to more energy-efficient feeds as well as improved dosage forms (e.g. better pellet size, palatability and digestibility) Improved soil, water and waste management: Avoid excessive accumulation and mineralization of organic carbon in ponds. Yet accumulating carbon (in wastewaters, sediments/sludge), however, can be captured and utilized to produce biogas or biomass (production of sea cucumbers, shellfish, detrivorous fish, algae and various plants using aquaculture waste has been successfully tested – however, species composition needs to be chosen very carefully )
Landscape level: Integration of the aquaculture within the wider ecosystem (e.g. farming landscape or wetlands) Farming landscape: Most of the world’s soils used for agriculture have been depleted of organic matter due to conventional farming practices (e.g. ploughing or hoeing before every crop). This degradation process is reversible: the formation of carbon stocks in soils can be achieved through increased carbon inputs and the adoption of certain agricultural practices, e.g. reduced tillage, use of cover crops. This is not only beneficial for mitigating climate change, but also enhances food security (increased yields). Sludge and wastewater from aquaculture can be used as fertilizer for agricultural crops or as a type of soil conditioner for degraded sites The carbon in the sludge/wastewater is conserved. However, not all tested systems concerning fertilization of agricultural crops have been proven successful. Mangrove-friendly aquaculture: Various integrated systems have emerged, especially in Southeast Asia, including mangrove-shrimp, mangrove-crab or mangrove-fish systems Ways to enforce these measures include (organic) certification or integration of carbon credit schemes. However, GHG emissions and sequestration that occur as a result of the management of coastal and marine habitats are currently not accounted for and therefore not included in international climate change mechanisms (e.g. REDD; Laffoley et al. 2009). Example: Shrimp farmers striving for organic certification in Ecuador are obliged to replant at least 50% of any mangrove forest cleared to establish the farm (Bunting et al, 2009). Mangroves: long-term rate of carbon accumulation in sediment 139 gC m -2 yr -1 sequestration of carbon by means of conservation and restoration has high potential Synergies: Besides mitigation of climate, aquaculture will also need to adapt it its impacts - both mitigation and adaptation are essential in reducing the risks of climate change. The implementation of an ecosystem approach to aquaculture is one of the most relevant adaptations to climate change and also has mitigation potential pursuing this strategy might for now be the most appropriate action