As teams have wrapped up their World Cup group play over the last week, we at The Upshot have been obsessed with helping you understand the variety of possible outcomes: what teams must do to win their group, advance or, at the very least, spoil the fun for others.
We have published live tables that update as scores come in (as we'll continue to do), pondered what needed to happen to get an all-Americas semifinal and gone deep on the scenarios for the United States to get out of group play.
But for some readers, all that wasn't enough — and we agree.
The tiebreakers can indeed be puzzling, which takes attention away from watching and enjoying the games. You don't want to be doing math on bar napkins if the United States goes down 2-0 to Germany while Ghana has a 3-1 lead on Portugal. (Ghana would advance, by the way.)
The interactive table above is meant to solve this problem, calm your nerves, but also to let your imagination go wild. It contains 984 of the most likely scenarios for the United States to advance to the Round of 16, (not including a handful of scenarios that would end up with the United States and Portugal drawing lots).
Finally, here are three things to remember:
Above all, things are looking good for the United States. It is much more likely to advance than not. A win or tie against Germany or a Ghana/Portugal tie guarantee the Americans a berth in the knockout round.
If you want the United States to advance, cheer for Portugal. Absent a blowout, the United States would advance on goal differential.
Lots could be drawn. In the scenario above, there are 10 ways that the games could end that would result in the final tiebreaker: the drawing of lots. If Germany or Ghana takes a big lead on Thursday, remain calm, consult the table and sit next to someone lucky.
